How to evaluate a real estate offer without an agent, the 6 factors that actually matter

When an offer lands in your inbox, it's tempting to look at one number: the price. If it's close to asking, you feel good. If it's low, you feel insulted. But experienced sellers, and the data behind thousands of closed deals, tell a different story.

The highest offer fails to close more often than you'd think. And a slightly lower offer with cleaner terms often puts more money in your pocket at the end. Here are the six factors that actually determine whether an offer is strong.

1. Financing type

How a buyer is paying matters as much as how much they're paying. There are four main financing types, and they carry very different risk profiles:

• Cash: no lender, no appraisal requirement, fastest close. The gold standard. A cash offer at 97% of asking is often better than a financed offer at 102%.
• Conventional loan: the most common. Requires an appraisal. If the home appraises below the offer price, the deal may require renegotiation unless the buyer covers the gap.
• FHA loan: government-backed, lower down payment. Stricter appraisal standards and condition requirements. Some homes don't qualify.
• VA loan: available to veterans. No down payment required. Strong buyers, but VA appraisals can be strict.

When evaluating financing, ask: is the buyer pre-approved (not just pre-qualified)? There's a meaningful difference. Pre-qualification is a five-minute phone call. Pre-approval involves a lender actually pulling credit and verifying income.

2. Down payment percentage

The down payment tells you two things: how much equity the buyer has going in, and how likely the deal is to survive a low appraisal. A buyer putting 20% down has more cushion. If the home appraises at $10,000 below the offer price, a 20% down buyer can often absorb that gap. A 3.5% down FHA buyer usually cannot.

As a rule: the higher the down payment, the lower the risk of the deal falling apart for financing reasons.

3. Contingencies

Contingencies are the escape hatches built into an offer. The fewer there are, the more committed the buyer is. The most common:

• Inspection contingency: buyer can walk (or renegotiate) after an inspection. Standard and expected. Watch out for buyers who use inspection as a fishing expedition to negotiate price down after you've accepted.
• Financing contingency: if the buyer can't get their loan, they can exit without penalty. Reasonable, but it means the deal isn't done until the lender says it is.
• Appraisal contingency: if the home doesn't appraise at the offer price, the buyer can exit. This is where financed deals often unravel.
• Sale contingency: buyer needs to sell their current home first. Highest risk. Avoid if you have other options.

A no-contingency offer from a cash buyer is as clean as it gets. An offer with three contingencies from a buyer with 3.5% down is a much bigger gamble, regardless of price.

4. Earnest money deposit

Earnest money (also called a good faith deposit) is the amount the buyer puts up to show they're serious. It typically goes into escrow and is credited toward the purchase at closing, but if the buyer walks without a valid contingency reason, you may be entitled to keep it.

The size of the deposit signals commitment. 1% of the purchase price is common. 2 to 3% is a strong signal. A buyer offering $500 earnest money on a $500,000 home is telling you something about how serious they are.

5. Closing timeline

When do you want to be done? Cash deals can close in 10 to 14 days. Conventional financed deals typically take 30 to 45 days. FHA and VA loans can take 45 to 60 days.

A longer close isn't always bad, if you need time to find your next home, a 60-day close might be exactly what you want. But a longer timeline also means more time for something to go wrong. Match the timeline to your actual needs, not just a number that sounds fast.

6. Offer price relative to market, not just asking price

Finally: the price. But evaluate it against comparable sales in your area, not just your listing price. Your asking price is what you want. Comp sales are what the market will bear. If your home is priced right and an offer comes in at 98% of asking, that's strong. If your home is overpriced and the offer reflects actual market value, that's useful information, not an insult.

Also factor in what you're being asked to contribute. A full-price offer with a $10,000 seller credit toward closing costs is effectively a below-asking offer. Run the net number, not just the headline price.

How Countered scores your offers

This is exactly why Countered has an offer score. Every offer submitted through Countered gets an offer score built from price, close speed, closing certainty, and contingencies, weighted by the priorities you set for your listing. Financing type, down payment, and earnest money all feed closing certainty. You see a single number that tells you how strong the offer is, and a breakdown showing where it earns its score and where it falls short.

You're not guessing. You're deciding with data.